NOTE: I wrote this before the games this weekend, but due to Cardiff's shithouse availability of internet cafes I can only publish now- fairly accurate though...
Minnows
One of the pure joys of a rugby world cup is the many, many low rent matches that have to be played to find out who the best of the rest is, that is which teams who aren't going to make the quarter finals can ensure themselves an invitation to the next big dance in 4 years with a strong showing this time around.
The best example of this was on Wednesday night, when we got to see two terrific matches, the first between Japan and Fiji, and the second between Italia and Romania. In the first match the Japanesse showed the incredible never say die attitude that makes rugby the finest sport in the world. They were smaller in the forwards and had less razzle dazzle in the backline, but the Jappannese managed to make it a match for the full eighty minutes. When the Fijians finally managed to score their first try (with a lucky 60 metre breakout) we thought that the Fijians were going to run away with it, but the old kamaikazies managed to fight back in, then lead, then loose again, then fight back in, lead again, and then lose it. But the final act of the game, the Japs keeping the ball alive for over fifteen phases in a desperate bid to steal the game. Unfortunatly they failed, but the spirit they showed, and the spirit the crowd showed, sums up totally what hte world cup is all about.
I was too drunk to really pay too much attention to the Italy/Romania game but the bits I saw showed that they managed to do the same as the Nippons. Which brings us to this weekends minnows game, Canada vs Fiji on Sunday in Cardiff. We have tickets so it should be a hot afternoon, after the maddness that will be tomorrow's big game hopefully the Fijian/Canada fight for the right to come third in Pool B will be a well fought tussle.
The other big matches this weekend will be the deciders for Pools B and A. South Africa vs England tongiht and Australia Weales tommorrow. On paper the Southern Hemisphere teams should be able to a load of points on their belegured Northen rivals, but there is something about the atmosphere at the moment that I think there are going to be two epics played this weekend.
England were once a great team, without Johnny they will struggle tonight, but I figure hey will at least be in the match until about the 60 minute mark, the Saffie's will prob get a bonus point, but not until very late in the match. It will be Habana or Pieterson, grabbing a double that will break the game apart.
The Aussie match will be strange, I'm expecting an 60, 000 welsh, 20 000 Australian mix in the crowd, so the atmosphere will be incredible. The corresponding game last year was absolutley incredible (thank the lord for Latho) and the games in the middle of the year (abliet low strength teams) back home were also well contested. The Welsh have been off for the last few months, but I think at home they will be able to recreate the six nations form that saw them lock England completely out of the game.
The forwards battle should be interesting, with only maybe the second row being a real advantage for the Aussies, but an important advantage. Our backs will be stronger, allthough with Jimmy Hook in the side they are always a chance, he's one of those game change in an instant types.
Look for the Wallabies to win, but it will be soooo close, and maybe the crowd could be a factor. We will win, but it won't be pretty.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Vindication
So I spent a lot of time this week listening to well meaning, but stupid people banging on about the French tilt, and how they will win the worlds cup. I of course have known a lot better so was not surprised at all when los pumas destroyed le cocks hopes of making it past the quarter finals. The Argentinian's played their game plan to perfection, not letting the Frenchies have any ball, and defending like monsters. Contempari at number 12 show's this, they just plugged it up the middle with the forwards, then kicked or bombed the ball up the pitch, only going outside of number 10 very, very rarely. Letting Contempari have a go every now and then. If this will work for the entire coupe de monde I don't think so, but good on them for that game. Watch for Freddie Michalak to be back for the Frenchies as soon as possible, also the mighty Chabal to start.
I didn't get to see much of the AB's game, just the first 20 minutes, which was enough to see the first 40 points. Of course they slowed up a lot after that, which was expected.
The Aussie's started very slowly, and were quite disjointed in the early part of the game. However in the second half when it all clicked they were spectacular. The big story was the performance of the reserves. Hoiles, Mcmeniman, Mitchell, and Barnes were very solid. I am very biased, but how can Palu continue to start? Hoiles on the pitch, with Mcmeniman and Chisholm on the bench allows the coaches heaps of discretion as too who to replace, can you imagine getting both second rowers off at the sixty minute mark and having basically four number sixes and G Smith on to finish the game?
Speaking of which George Smith has a huge candidacy for the try of the cup with his effort in the second half, tackling and regaining his feet in one movement, then running in to score the try untouched was amazing (coupled with the fact he touched down right in front of us...).
As for the other games, the poms were shit, the saffies had some massive hits- then a good win, the Welsh were horrible (but a good game), and the Irish had a non match.
Overall, my reading of the first weekend is that the Southern Hemisphere heavy weights were all about equal (which is a result for the aussies) whilst France and England were predictably crap. Argentina have just let themselves down with a sub par performance against Georgia, but I am going to go and buy their 5/8th Hernandez for my Test Rugby team, as he has to be cheaper then Contempari...
I didn't get to see much of the AB's game, just the first 20 minutes, which was enough to see the first 40 points. Of course they slowed up a lot after that, which was expected.
The Aussie's started very slowly, and were quite disjointed in the early part of the game. However in the second half when it all clicked they were spectacular. The big story was the performance of the reserves. Hoiles, Mcmeniman, Mitchell, and Barnes were very solid. I am very biased, but how can Palu continue to start? Hoiles on the pitch, with Mcmeniman and Chisholm on the bench allows the coaches heaps of discretion as too who to replace, can you imagine getting both second rowers off at the sixty minute mark and having basically four number sixes and G Smith on to finish the game?
Speaking of which George Smith has a huge candidacy for the try of the cup with his effort in the second half, tackling and regaining his feet in one movement, then running in to score the try untouched was amazing (coupled with the fact he touched down right in front of us...).
As for the other games, the poms were shit, the saffies had some massive hits- then a good win, the Welsh were horrible (but a good game), and the Irish had a non match.
Overall, my reading of the first weekend is that the Southern Hemisphere heavy weights were all about equal (which is a result for the aussies) whilst France and England were predictably crap. Argentina have just let themselves down with a sub par performance against Georgia, but I am going to go and buy their 5/8th Hernandez for my Test Rugby team, as he has to be cheaper then Contempari...
Sunday, August 19, 2007
World 15
Here is my pre cup world 15- I think they would be pretty handy against near any opposition.
1: Andy Sheridan (England)
2: John Smit (Boks)
3: Carl Haymen (NZ)
4: Botha (SA)
5: Matfield (SA)
6: McCaw (NZ)
7: Burger (SA)
8: Chabal (FR)
9: Pinear (SA)
10: Carter (NZ)
11: Styen (SA)
12: Darcy (IRE)
13: BOD (IRE)
14: Sivavutu (NZ)
15: Latham (AUS)
Reserves:
Oliver (NZ)
Holmes (AUS)
Ireland second rower whose name I have forgotten
Smith (AUS)
Kelleher (NZ)
Hook (Wales)
Giteau (Aus)
1: Andy Sheridan (England)
2: John Smit (Boks)
3: Carl Haymen (NZ)
4: Botha (SA)
5: Matfield (SA)
6: McCaw (NZ)
7: Burger (SA)
8: Chabal (FR)
9: Pinear (SA)
10: Carter (NZ)
11: Styen (SA)
12: Darcy (IRE)
13: BOD (IRE)
14: Sivavutu (NZ)
15: Latham (AUS)
Reserves:
Oliver (NZ)
Holmes (AUS)
Ireland second rower whose name I have forgotten
Smith (AUS)
Kelleher (NZ)
Hook (Wales)
Giteau (Aus)
The Teams
Having done the Pool by Pool analysis we will now have a look at the strengths and weaknesses of each major team.
There are a number of ingredients that seem to always come together for the sides to win a worlds championship. First you need a super inspirational leader, Eales, Johnson, Pinear, and Farr-Jones for example. All these fellows where hard as nails, best in show in their positions, and coming to the end of their careers. The next key condition is a great first five eigth- Murry Kirwan, Michael Lynagh, Stephen Larkham, and of course Johnny Wilkinson. Going into the big dance they have to be conisdered the best player in the world, have to play the game differently (or is it just better) then their opponents, and have a killer drop goal (evidence: Lynagh could kick drop goals in 91 but had stopped in 95, lost the QF to Rob Andrews DG; 95 Vunder Westheizen; 99 Larkham vs SA, SA vs England; 03 RWC Final). These are the two killer ingredients, the other important ones are Good Second row (Eales (twice) Johnson etc), Speedy outside backs (Campese, Lomu (not a winner but still the best player in 95 cup), Roff and Burke 99, Robinson and Cohen 03), and an out of the box loose forward (Willie O, Pinear, Kefu, Dallagio and Hill).
Australia
Two time, two time Worlds Champions the Wallabies have the raw quality to be able to win the cup, but don't seem to be at quite the same point of the great 91 and 99 teams.
Forwards:
Strengths: The Aussie pack has been much maligned since the 05 decimation at the hands of Andy Sheridan at Twickenham, but thankfully Axel Folley is a supurb forwards coach. The second row is extremely experienced. Vickerman and Sharpe are a combo that can hold their own against any oposition. Also Smith/Waugh are better then most.
Weaknesses: The pack has few actual weaknesses, but when compared to oposition teams they don't look as strong as they could be. Shepardson, Moore, and Holmes just aren't experienced enough to be considered a threat (with Rodzilla it would have been different) and if there are any injuries we're in trouble, Baxter and Dunning??? come on! We are also weak at number 8- Palu is not an 80 minute threat and Lyons is a selection mistake that could one day be compared to Rogers in 03.
Last Word: The pack won't distroy any of their big ticket opponents, but should be able to hold strong in the scrums, steal a few lineouts, and scavenge at the break down enough to really compete at this cup. Elsom or McMenimen could have the sort of career defining cup that Kefu had in 99.
Backs
Strengths: Class, pure and simple. Larkham, Giteau, Mortlock, Tiquri, and Latham can all on their day be best in the world. They will have oposition teams worried and if they can start to really get their lines going right, they will distroy oppositions.
Weaknesses: Under Scott Johnson they haven't really become the mega force that Wales were. Gregan's service hasn't improved, its not in the news anymore, but he is still a weight on the entire team. Mitchel and Gerrard aren't world champions (Mitchell could become that quality) we need real pace out wide- Digby or younger Super Clyde would be ideal but the selectors wouldn't take a gamble.
Overall Last Word: They were no chance at this point in 03, smacked by 50 points by the AB's in the approach to the world cup. This time their a lot stronger, and can compete with anyone on the day. They are once again the leaders in defence- unbelievably strong. The depth is questionable. The Wallabies won't be setting the cup alight but can go all the way. Hard games against Wales in Cardiff, England in a QF, and the AB's in the Semi mean that they will have to do it a number of times to win it, but they can. Remember we've never lost to the AB's at a worlds cup.
AB's.
The favorites and year to year best team in the world, the AB's have traditionally failed at worlds cups. The signs are starting to show that their on the way down of their peak - will it happen to them again?
Forwards:
Strengths: Great front row, and great loose trio- two of the worlds best in Hayman and McCaw. Their front row of Hayman, Oliver, and Yoda are extra specials, they will be able to match anyone, and a couple of times a match will distroy a scrum. Their loose trio is also a strength, McCaw by himself is a tidal force, but add in Soaliolo and Collins and they are extreme. They have the Captain and out of the box loose forward that are very important to a worlds cup win.
Weaknesses: The second row? Jack hasn't been at his best for a couple of years, and Robinson is injury prone. Their line out can sometimes be distroyed, but that's about the only weakness. Also maybe the Collins Soaliolo show is becoming a little bit old- their running with the backs can often be over played to the point of being a weakness.
Last Word: The Ab's forwards will be as physical and confrontational as any others at the cup, possibly even stronger then anyone else.
Backs:
Strenghts: Carter is the best in the world. Can do whatever he wants on the Rugby Pitch, definatly the 5/8 most diserving of the best in the world tag. Rocokoko and Sivivatu are also incredible strengths- oppositions fear them for a reason.
Weaknesses: Their three quarter line isn't as settled as it could be- is Mauger and Toeava their best combo? or is McCalister and Nonu, or Mauger and Umanga... none of these combo's are better then Giteau and Mortlock or D'arcy and Bod. They lost the cup last time because they failed to put Umanga on the pitch in the semis- without the best players on the park they can't win it.
Last Word: Good backs, but not outstanding. I wouldn't write of the AB's based on their backline, but few make it into my worlds 15.
Overall Last Word: Deserving their favoritism position, but really is it more that the rest of the world hasn't staked a claim as yet? I believe they are coming down of their peak, but are they far enough down for the opposition to be a real shot? The only way they get beaten is if they run into a Wallabies or Irish team having a perfect day (maybe the boks as well). They look at the moment to have most of the ingredients in place to win the whole thing, but they can find a way to lose it. Imagine an Ireland Ab's QF and them missing out on semi - it would be beautiful.
Spring Boks.
The boks are starting to come together as a real threat at this cup. Jake White is a great coach, and they have some world class players; but the politics might end up hamstringing them.
Forwards:
Strengths: Their Springboks, so of course they have a strong pack. Good scrum. Good leader in John Smit. Great second row in Matfield and Botha. Best player in the world in Schalk Burger, and strong loose forwards. Probably the best pack going around. Their lineout is the envy of the world, when it works, and they can disrupt almost any opposition line. With this strength they can play a simple game of field position making it tough for any opponents to score. The Loosey's also add incredible physicality and great ball running.
Weaknesses: Piere Spies is out, which is a blow. and the whole Watson thing is a political mess that could bring the team down from the inside- I mean he's not that great a player (when you consider that Burger is the alternative). Their size can also be a problem, if a team can run them around enough maybe they become a liability.
Backs:
Stengths: Pretorius if he can get fit can be a world cup winner, he has very solid game controlling skills and has that out of the box ability to turn a match (eg Boks vs Wallabies in Perth when he scored that late try to win the whole thing). De Villiers makes the top division in the world standings. Their outside backs are also incredible- Habana, Steyn, Pieterson etc can score tries from nearly anywhere on the park, evidence Super 14 Final.
Weaknesses: The make up of the back line is questionable, with the politics and depth problems potential problems. Steyn isn't in the starting line up at the moment- his versatility probably the reason, but with his 60 metre boot, pace, and drop goal abilities he should be first one picked. But Politics means that Ndungani and Willimse are there instead- its not a good situation for Jake White. Butch James is also not a world cup winner, so if an injury happens they can be screwed.
Overall Last Word: Genuine chances for the final, but politics can screw them over. They have a potentially easy road through, England in their pool, Wales in a QF, the easier Semi (in that the AB's aren't there). We will know at the QF stage if their genuine or not- if they are on fire, or if they have descended into a political mess like in 03.
France:
NOTE: I know more about the southern hemisphere teams then I don about the Northen Hemisphere teams...
The Frenchies just about have to be second favorites for the title- somehow they won the 6 Nations- and that somehow is how I assess their complete chances- they weren't better then Ireland at Croke Park- but they won, and champions, with home town advantage find ways to win games.
Forwards:
Strengths: Chabal and Hardinqou are the entre story that I want to tell. These guy's are maniac- just look at Chabal, if I could grow that beard... The French aren't the most stylish, or the most well known team in Worlds Rugby- but with guys like Chabal they are all ways threatening. Good second row with Pelous and Ibanez is also good.
Weaknesses: There is something about this pack that doesn't get me going- maybe its the tight shirts they have worn for so long, or maybe its the fact that we all watched them cower in the face of the AB's attack a couple of years ago- but facing up to the Frenchies is not something that I find particullarly worrisome.
Backs:
Strenghts: Can you say Michalak? He is an out of the box superstar, as is juazion- or whatever his name is- they have some solid players, but I just can't see where they are getting their quality from. Castegrandi has retired (he was rubbish anyways) but the experience just isn't there. There was a reason why they got distroyed at Suncorp a couple of years ago- 80 kilo weaklings can not stand up against the might and power that is Mortlock, Tiquri, and Latham- all 100 kilo superpowers.
Weaknesses- so that strengths section desended into a weaknesses rant- there is no way I can see at the moment of a home town win- secretly I am going for an Argentinian up rising in the pool games- but on the score board the French are extremely good, that win at Croke Park was incredible.
Overall- so this was more a discucssion the whole time, no different hats here- but seriously the French are a proud, strong rugby nation, with a very hard pool, but a very good chance of dominating a home town dance that could get to the Southern Hemisphere powers in a big way.
Ireland:
My favorite non Australian team- I got the full experience in Donny Broke in Janurary and have been a fan ever since. O'Gara, Darcy, and Bod deserve to be world champions- can the fact that they come from a second rate, two Melbournes cups winning country, be replaced by their sheer brilliance?
Forwards:
Stregnths: The hooker (can't remember his name), the second row, and the loosey's are all top quality players, O'Callaghn, or some other name, is world class- I like them alot.
Weaknesses: A pack that could never, on any day, blow an opponent off the park, that is the problem with the Irish. They are a bit like the Wallabies of a few years ago- solid but no killer instinct type of thing. I worry that given a full blown attack from the likes of Botha/Matfield or Collins/McCaw they will wilt like the hurling throwing monkeys they really are.
Backs
Strengths: it starts with a B and ends with OD- the best back in the world, bar none. Evidence- AB's vs Ireland last year, surely they got smashed, but BOD showed how great he was in a second rate side against true brilliance. Then this year he was unavailable at Croke Park and the bottle it- if he was on the pitch they blow that game away. Add the fact that Ogara is argueably the form 5/8 of world rugby (maybe behind Jimmy Hook) and D'arcy is probably the form player in the world a few months ago and you have three of the best players going around standing shoulder to shoulder- only the best teams could possibly beat them.
Weaknesses: I see a great side, but is it just three names clouding that judgement? the rest of the backs are solid- but they are not AB's class. Is there level of ability a weakness compared to the depths of the AB's- I think we will find out come this worlds cup- all the great teams have solid outside backs- Campese, Lomu, Roff, Tune, Robinson- is Horgan of this class?
Overall Last Comment- I like them, and that is probably a downfall- I can't see enough weaknesses to really talk them down. 16 years ago a bit of Uni Rugby super stardom buried them, 4 years ago we just snuck past them- this time they have had the prepration, but can the difficultly of their pool bring them down? I hope not, they play a brand of rugby that deserves to be seen at the semi final level as a minimum- Kieth Wood retired never having won anything- BOD deserves so much more.
The Rest: England, Wales, Argentina
England:
At 6 nations time I dind't have 5 minutes for England- they sucked. But add one name (or two) that being Sheridan and all of a sudden they can distroy opponents up front. Furious D in their loose forwards, and super Johnny and all of a sudden we are talking about genuine contenders, not favorites like last time, but contenders. Anyways, don't write them off, but after they take a beating from the boks in the pool games can Johnny channel Rob Andrews enough to sink the Wallabies in the QF's? I think not. PS- Jimmy Hook beat them last time out as well. No real chances.
Wales:
Its a short song but a hell of a story. J Hook- the new JPR Williams. He is the business unlike anyone we have seen in a long time. Unfortunatly, Stephen Jones is still first choice, and Henson is injured- this makes the Welsh effectivly lame ducks. However, anyone who was at the Paddo for the QF four years ago will knwo that the ultimate battle in Cardiff on the 15th will be an epic. If they win that, then get the Poms in the QF's- all of a sudden a semi against the blacks and Hook can turn a game by himself- its a long, long shot but they could do it.
Argentina:
Deserve to be in the final eight but once again Dav Rossi's friends at the IRB have screwed over the Argies. Fucking Scotland will get a free ride (or hopefully the Itai's) into the QF's and the argies have to fight against the French and Irish in the pool games. I love their pack and I love Contempari (who I say live at Donny Brook earlier this year). Unfortunatly the French have a way of beating sides, so I can't see it happening. They have nothing to loose, but can't win it either, kind of like the socceroo's at the german dance of last year- the quality but no chance in reality. A pity.
There are a number of ingredients that seem to always come together for the sides to win a worlds championship. First you need a super inspirational leader, Eales, Johnson, Pinear, and Farr-Jones for example. All these fellows where hard as nails, best in show in their positions, and coming to the end of their careers. The next key condition is a great first five eigth- Murry Kirwan, Michael Lynagh, Stephen Larkham, and of course Johnny Wilkinson. Going into the big dance they have to be conisdered the best player in the world, have to play the game differently (or is it just better) then their opponents, and have a killer drop goal (evidence: Lynagh could kick drop goals in 91 but had stopped in 95, lost the QF to Rob Andrews DG; 95 Vunder Westheizen; 99 Larkham vs SA, SA vs England; 03 RWC Final). These are the two killer ingredients, the other important ones are Good Second row (Eales (twice) Johnson etc), Speedy outside backs (Campese, Lomu (not a winner but still the best player in 95 cup), Roff and Burke 99, Robinson and Cohen 03), and an out of the box loose forward (Willie O, Pinear, Kefu, Dallagio and Hill).
Australia
Two time, two time Worlds Champions the Wallabies have the raw quality to be able to win the cup, but don't seem to be at quite the same point of the great 91 and 99 teams.
Forwards:
Strengths: The Aussie pack has been much maligned since the 05 decimation at the hands of Andy Sheridan at Twickenham, but thankfully Axel Folley is a supurb forwards coach. The second row is extremely experienced. Vickerman and Sharpe are a combo that can hold their own against any oposition. Also Smith/Waugh are better then most.
Weaknesses: The pack has few actual weaknesses, but when compared to oposition teams they don't look as strong as they could be. Shepardson, Moore, and Holmes just aren't experienced enough to be considered a threat (with Rodzilla it would have been different) and if there are any injuries we're in trouble, Baxter and Dunning??? come on! We are also weak at number 8- Palu is not an 80 minute threat and Lyons is a selection mistake that could one day be compared to Rogers in 03.
Last Word: The pack won't distroy any of their big ticket opponents, but should be able to hold strong in the scrums, steal a few lineouts, and scavenge at the break down enough to really compete at this cup. Elsom or McMenimen could have the sort of career defining cup that Kefu had in 99.
Backs
Strengths: Class, pure and simple. Larkham, Giteau, Mortlock, Tiquri, and Latham can all on their day be best in the world. They will have oposition teams worried and if they can start to really get their lines going right, they will distroy oppositions.
Weaknesses: Under Scott Johnson they haven't really become the mega force that Wales were. Gregan's service hasn't improved, its not in the news anymore, but he is still a weight on the entire team. Mitchel and Gerrard aren't world champions (Mitchell could become that quality) we need real pace out wide- Digby or younger Super Clyde would be ideal but the selectors wouldn't take a gamble.
Overall Last Word: They were no chance at this point in 03, smacked by 50 points by the AB's in the approach to the world cup. This time their a lot stronger, and can compete with anyone on the day. They are once again the leaders in defence- unbelievably strong. The depth is questionable. The Wallabies won't be setting the cup alight but can go all the way. Hard games against Wales in Cardiff, England in a QF, and the AB's in the Semi mean that they will have to do it a number of times to win it, but they can. Remember we've never lost to the AB's at a worlds cup.
AB's.
The favorites and year to year best team in the world, the AB's have traditionally failed at worlds cups. The signs are starting to show that their on the way down of their peak - will it happen to them again?
Forwards:
Strengths: Great front row, and great loose trio- two of the worlds best in Hayman and McCaw. Their front row of Hayman, Oliver, and Yoda are extra specials, they will be able to match anyone, and a couple of times a match will distroy a scrum. Their loose trio is also a strength, McCaw by himself is a tidal force, but add in Soaliolo and Collins and they are extreme. They have the Captain and out of the box loose forward that are very important to a worlds cup win.
Weaknesses: The second row? Jack hasn't been at his best for a couple of years, and Robinson is injury prone. Their line out can sometimes be distroyed, but that's about the only weakness. Also maybe the Collins Soaliolo show is becoming a little bit old- their running with the backs can often be over played to the point of being a weakness.
Last Word: The Ab's forwards will be as physical and confrontational as any others at the cup, possibly even stronger then anyone else.
Backs:
Strenghts: Carter is the best in the world. Can do whatever he wants on the Rugby Pitch, definatly the 5/8 most diserving of the best in the world tag. Rocokoko and Sivivatu are also incredible strengths- oppositions fear them for a reason.
Weaknesses: Their three quarter line isn't as settled as it could be- is Mauger and Toeava their best combo? or is McCalister and Nonu, or Mauger and Umanga... none of these combo's are better then Giteau and Mortlock or D'arcy and Bod. They lost the cup last time because they failed to put Umanga on the pitch in the semis- without the best players on the park they can't win it.
Last Word: Good backs, but not outstanding. I wouldn't write of the AB's based on their backline, but few make it into my worlds 15.
Overall Last Word: Deserving their favoritism position, but really is it more that the rest of the world hasn't staked a claim as yet? I believe they are coming down of their peak, but are they far enough down for the opposition to be a real shot? The only way they get beaten is if they run into a Wallabies or Irish team having a perfect day (maybe the boks as well). They look at the moment to have most of the ingredients in place to win the whole thing, but they can find a way to lose it. Imagine an Ireland Ab's QF and them missing out on semi - it would be beautiful.
Spring Boks.
The boks are starting to come together as a real threat at this cup. Jake White is a great coach, and they have some world class players; but the politics might end up hamstringing them.
Forwards:
Strengths: Their Springboks, so of course they have a strong pack. Good scrum. Good leader in John Smit. Great second row in Matfield and Botha. Best player in the world in Schalk Burger, and strong loose forwards. Probably the best pack going around. Their lineout is the envy of the world, when it works, and they can disrupt almost any opposition line. With this strength they can play a simple game of field position making it tough for any opponents to score. The Loosey's also add incredible physicality and great ball running.
Weaknesses: Piere Spies is out, which is a blow. and the whole Watson thing is a political mess that could bring the team down from the inside- I mean he's not that great a player (when you consider that Burger is the alternative). Their size can also be a problem, if a team can run them around enough maybe they become a liability.
Backs:
Stengths: Pretorius if he can get fit can be a world cup winner, he has very solid game controlling skills and has that out of the box ability to turn a match (eg Boks vs Wallabies in Perth when he scored that late try to win the whole thing). De Villiers makes the top division in the world standings. Their outside backs are also incredible- Habana, Steyn, Pieterson etc can score tries from nearly anywhere on the park, evidence Super 14 Final.
Weaknesses: The make up of the back line is questionable, with the politics and depth problems potential problems. Steyn isn't in the starting line up at the moment- his versatility probably the reason, but with his 60 metre boot, pace, and drop goal abilities he should be first one picked. But Politics means that Ndungani and Willimse are there instead- its not a good situation for Jake White. Butch James is also not a world cup winner, so if an injury happens they can be screwed.
Overall Last Word: Genuine chances for the final, but politics can screw them over. They have a potentially easy road through, England in their pool, Wales in a QF, the easier Semi (in that the AB's aren't there). We will know at the QF stage if their genuine or not- if they are on fire, or if they have descended into a political mess like in 03.
France:
NOTE: I know more about the southern hemisphere teams then I don about the Northen Hemisphere teams...
The Frenchies just about have to be second favorites for the title- somehow they won the 6 Nations- and that somehow is how I assess their complete chances- they weren't better then Ireland at Croke Park- but they won, and champions, with home town advantage find ways to win games.
Forwards:
Strengths: Chabal and Hardinqou are the entre story that I want to tell. These guy's are maniac- just look at Chabal, if I could grow that beard... The French aren't the most stylish, or the most well known team in Worlds Rugby- but with guys like Chabal they are all ways threatening. Good second row with Pelous and Ibanez is also good.
Weaknesses: There is something about this pack that doesn't get me going- maybe its the tight shirts they have worn for so long, or maybe its the fact that we all watched them cower in the face of the AB's attack a couple of years ago- but facing up to the Frenchies is not something that I find particullarly worrisome.
Backs:
Strenghts: Can you say Michalak? He is an out of the box superstar, as is juazion- or whatever his name is- they have some solid players, but I just can't see where they are getting their quality from. Castegrandi has retired (he was rubbish anyways) but the experience just isn't there. There was a reason why they got distroyed at Suncorp a couple of years ago- 80 kilo weaklings can not stand up against the might and power that is Mortlock, Tiquri, and Latham- all 100 kilo superpowers.
Weaknesses- so that strengths section desended into a weaknesses rant- there is no way I can see at the moment of a home town win- secretly I am going for an Argentinian up rising in the pool games- but on the score board the French are extremely good, that win at Croke Park was incredible.
Overall- so this was more a discucssion the whole time, no different hats here- but seriously the French are a proud, strong rugby nation, with a very hard pool, but a very good chance of dominating a home town dance that could get to the Southern Hemisphere powers in a big way.
Ireland:
My favorite non Australian team- I got the full experience in Donny Broke in Janurary and have been a fan ever since. O'Gara, Darcy, and Bod deserve to be world champions- can the fact that they come from a second rate, two Melbournes cups winning country, be replaced by their sheer brilliance?
Forwards:
Stregnths: The hooker (can't remember his name), the second row, and the loosey's are all top quality players, O'Callaghn, or some other name, is world class- I like them alot.
Weaknesses: A pack that could never, on any day, blow an opponent off the park, that is the problem with the Irish. They are a bit like the Wallabies of a few years ago- solid but no killer instinct type of thing. I worry that given a full blown attack from the likes of Botha/Matfield or Collins/McCaw they will wilt like the hurling throwing monkeys they really are.
Backs
Strengths: it starts with a B and ends with OD- the best back in the world, bar none. Evidence- AB's vs Ireland last year, surely they got smashed, but BOD showed how great he was in a second rate side against true brilliance. Then this year he was unavailable at Croke Park and the bottle it- if he was on the pitch they blow that game away. Add the fact that Ogara is argueably the form 5/8 of world rugby (maybe behind Jimmy Hook) and D'arcy is probably the form player in the world a few months ago and you have three of the best players going around standing shoulder to shoulder- only the best teams could possibly beat them.
Weaknesses: I see a great side, but is it just three names clouding that judgement? the rest of the backs are solid- but they are not AB's class. Is there level of ability a weakness compared to the depths of the AB's- I think we will find out come this worlds cup- all the great teams have solid outside backs- Campese, Lomu, Roff, Tune, Robinson- is Horgan of this class?
Overall Last Comment- I like them, and that is probably a downfall- I can't see enough weaknesses to really talk them down. 16 years ago a bit of Uni Rugby super stardom buried them, 4 years ago we just snuck past them- this time they have had the prepration, but can the difficultly of their pool bring them down? I hope not, they play a brand of rugby that deserves to be seen at the semi final level as a minimum- Kieth Wood retired never having won anything- BOD deserves so much more.
The Rest: England, Wales, Argentina
England:
At 6 nations time I dind't have 5 minutes for England- they sucked. But add one name (or two) that being Sheridan and all of a sudden they can distroy opponents up front. Furious D in their loose forwards, and super Johnny and all of a sudden we are talking about genuine contenders, not favorites like last time, but contenders. Anyways, don't write them off, but after they take a beating from the boks in the pool games can Johnny channel Rob Andrews enough to sink the Wallabies in the QF's? I think not. PS- Jimmy Hook beat them last time out as well. No real chances.
Wales:
Its a short song but a hell of a story. J Hook- the new JPR Williams. He is the business unlike anyone we have seen in a long time. Unfortunatly, Stephen Jones is still first choice, and Henson is injured- this makes the Welsh effectivly lame ducks. However, anyone who was at the Paddo for the QF four years ago will knwo that the ultimate battle in Cardiff on the 15th will be an epic. If they win that, then get the Poms in the QF's- all of a sudden a semi against the blacks and Hook can turn a game by himself- its a long, long shot but they could do it.
Argentina:
Deserve to be in the final eight but once again Dav Rossi's friends at the IRB have screwed over the Argies. Fucking Scotland will get a free ride (or hopefully the Itai's) into the QF's and the argies have to fight against the French and Irish in the pool games. I love their pack and I love Contempari (who I say live at Donny Brook earlier this year). Unfortunatly the French have a way of beating sides, so I can't see it happening. They have nothing to loose, but can't win it either, kind of like the socceroo's at the german dance of last year- the quality but no chance in reality. A pity.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Early Predictions
So this blog never ended up getting the use I envisioned for it - but now their is a world cup on hand so I figure I will revive it to do the Worlds Cup reports on it.
Here's the pool by pool analysis of what we can expect over the next few months. Overall I am expecting the Semi Finalists to be New Zealand vs Australia, and South Africa vs Ireland - After that its really anybodys.
Pool A - England, South Africa, Samoa, USA, Tonga
This is a very straight forward pool the big game will be England vs South Africa, I think in St Denis, we tried but failed to get tickets for this one. They will be playing for the right to play the loser from Pool B - but really it doesn't matter, neither side will really want to run into either the Wallabies or Wales in Marsaille for the Quarter Finals. It won't be as big a blow out as we saw when England were in SA earlier this season, but the Saffie's should win it fairly easily. It will be a monster forward battle, A Sheridan will have the hopes of the Rose's on his back, if he could get the scrum moving backwards, well... in real terms though the Saffie second row (best in the world) and the back row (best in the world?) will be the difference. The backs will be fairly even, with Johnny keeping the game tight- but the Boks outside backs will be able to steal a couple of tries and it will be all over.
In the rest of the pool expect Samoa to be very brave in their match against England, but they wont be able to pull it off. They will come third in the pool however, with the Yanks and Tongan's bringing up the rear.
Pool B - Australia, Wales, Fiji, Canada, Japan
Another straight forward pool, the big game between Australia and Wales in Cardiff will be one of the games of the cup however. Last year was a stunning battle with the Welsh pointing the Aussies but failing to land a knock out thanks to the mighty (and I mean very mighty) Latham - this pure class in the backs will end up being the difference in this game- Larkham, Giteau, Mortlock, Tiquri, and Latho vs Jimmy Hook - he's not that good a player.
Now that Henson is out, you know the Welsh will be Jones and Hook as their three quarter line - which is good, but not great - Hook needs to be at stand off for the Welsh to win (last years game Jones went off after only a couple of minutes and Hook on debut almost stole the match). The Winter games in Australia were interesting, and close, but come full strength world cup time it will be a totally different battle. Australia will win and get the easy match against the Poms in Marsaille.
The rest of the pool will super intersting, the Fijians deserved to be Quarter Finalists in 03, if CauCau hadn't been suspended they would have played Australia in the Quarters. CauCau isn't coming to France which means the matches between Fiji, Japan and Canada will be super match's of Rugby Football- the Lotus Blossom's won't be as good as they were last time (without Cashmore), which will give the Canadians more of a shot.
Pool C - New Zealand, Scotland, Italy, Romania, Portugal
This is a rediculous pool- the IRB are bending over for New Zealand, and then gifting Scotland another undesirved Quarter Final position. If only the Argies we're in this pool we would have the best Quarter Finals you could imagine...
Anyways, the big game in the pool will Scotland Italy- which is happening in Edingburugh (I am 90% sure) The Itai's have been improving alot over the last few years, pushing Australia in the first half a year ago, and then stealing (yes stealing) their match against Wales in the 6 nations- but still a wins a win for the Itai's. I'm not 150% positive when it comes to this match, but my instincts tell me that the Scots will win at home, which will suck, but that's just the way it is.
The other interesting thing to look at in this pool will be the different teams the Kiwi's put on the field - I don't think they really know who their best 15/22 is (I mean they are taking Thorne instead of Flavell) so they will need to tinker with their second row, centres, and back three a lot and they don't have the pleasure of a really good hit out in the pool games that the rest of the teams have.
Pool D - France, Ireland, Argentina, Georgia, Namibia
This is the pool of death. Not smart for the hosts, but the only pool with genuinly three potential Quarter Final's teams, and two potential Final contenders. The game of the cup will be the France Ireland replay in St Denis (we have tickets for it). That game at Croke Park this year was one of the finest games of rugby football I have ever seen and the Irish have been planning their revenge ever since, but this time the French are at home. I think the Irish will win the big game, and therefore the pool- they have few weeknesses if their top 15 is on the field, and probably the best backline in the game at the moment, they were unlucking against us in 03 and I think they have gotten better since then, they will be too good for a French team that is a little too hot and cold for my liking, there best chance was two times ago in my opinion- they have been strong, but not great for too long now.
The problem with this pool is that it also has the ultimate dark horse team, the Argentinians. Who have a good pack, an old dogg half back, and a match winner in Contempari (or however you spell it) they could, and its an outside with the quality of their rivals, but they could cause the boilover upset that the pool games are screaming out for. Here's the scenario, Ireland and France beat the all living shit out of each other in St Denis, and then have to play a Hungary Argentina - stranger things have happened. I am predicting that Ireland will win the pool and France will qualify for the quarters, but it will be messy, they other scenario could be the team who wins in the big Ireland/France showdown ends up losing to the Argies and therefore we see it going down to points differential - which would be hot, can you imagine BOD needing to score about 50 points (again like the 6 nations) then actually getting it done- pricless.
Quarter Finals
The first bunch of quarter finals are potentially between New Zealand and either Ireland or France- either way it will be the end of the road (probably for the hosts), although they are the only teams that could ever beat New Zealand in a QF- so expect a good game, especially if its France. The other match will be less interesting as it will be either Ireland/France vs Scotland, anyone who was Suncorp Stadium for the last QF that Scotland played (me) will know that it won't be much of a game. Although if its the Irish there will be some feeling involved. It would be better if the Italians made it through, they would at least put some spark into the match. Expect New Zealand and Ireland to get through.
The other quarter finals will also be interesting. Australia can play either England or South Africa, and Wales can also play either of these teams... South Africa is obviously the harder of the quarter finals, I would predict that Wales will play them, and South Africa should beat them. We will also beat the Poms, should be a hot match if Sheridan plays- will test Sheperdson, but we will end up being better- of course the spectre of Johnny and Rob Andrew will be hanging over our heads- will never forget that 95 Quarter final... Still fully expect us to win. If it plays out the other way, England Wales and South Africa Australia would be great games (seriously the QF's could be NZ France, Eng Wales, SA Aus- how amazing would that be?) Wales would squeek past the poms in an upset, and the Aussie's would smash the Saffie's who would let it all get to them. However, I predict the semi finalists will end up being New Zealand Ireland and South Africa Australia - from there any of the four could win it!
Here's the pool by pool analysis of what we can expect over the next few months. Overall I am expecting the Semi Finalists to be New Zealand vs Australia, and South Africa vs Ireland - After that its really anybodys.
Pool A - England, South Africa, Samoa, USA, Tonga
This is a very straight forward pool the big game will be England vs South Africa, I think in St Denis, we tried but failed to get tickets for this one. They will be playing for the right to play the loser from Pool B - but really it doesn't matter, neither side will really want to run into either the Wallabies or Wales in Marsaille for the Quarter Finals. It won't be as big a blow out as we saw when England were in SA earlier this season, but the Saffie's should win it fairly easily. It will be a monster forward battle, A Sheridan will have the hopes of the Rose's on his back, if he could get the scrum moving backwards, well... in real terms though the Saffie second row (best in the world) and the back row (best in the world?) will be the difference. The backs will be fairly even, with Johnny keeping the game tight- but the Boks outside backs will be able to steal a couple of tries and it will be all over.
In the rest of the pool expect Samoa to be very brave in their match against England, but they wont be able to pull it off. They will come third in the pool however, with the Yanks and Tongan's bringing up the rear.
Pool B - Australia, Wales, Fiji, Canada, Japan
Another straight forward pool, the big game between Australia and Wales in Cardiff will be one of the games of the cup however. Last year was a stunning battle with the Welsh pointing the Aussies but failing to land a knock out thanks to the mighty (and I mean very mighty) Latham - this pure class in the backs will end up being the difference in this game- Larkham, Giteau, Mortlock, Tiquri, and Latho vs Jimmy Hook - he's not that good a player.
Now that Henson is out, you know the Welsh will be Jones and Hook as their three quarter line - which is good, but not great - Hook needs to be at stand off for the Welsh to win (last years game Jones went off after only a couple of minutes and Hook on debut almost stole the match). The Winter games in Australia were interesting, and close, but come full strength world cup time it will be a totally different battle. Australia will win and get the easy match against the Poms in Marsaille.
The rest of the pool will super intersting, the Fijians deserved to be Quarter Finalists in 03, if CauCau hadn't been suspended they would have played Australia in the Quarters. CauCau isn't coming to France which means the matches between Fiji, Japan and Canada will be super match's of Rugby Football- the Lotus Blossom's won't be as good as they were last time (without Cashmore), which will give the Canadians more of a shot.
Pool C - New Zealand, Scotland, Italy, Romania, Portugal
This is a rediculous pool- the IRB are bending over for New Zealand, and then gifting Scotland another undesirved Quarter Final position. If only the Argies we're in this pool we would have the best Quarter Finals you could imagine...
Anyways, the big game in the pool will Scotland Italy- which is happening in Edingburugh (I am 90% sure) The Itai's have been improving alot over the last few years, pushing Australia in the first half a year ago, and then stealing (yes stealing) their match against Wales in the 6 nations- but still a wins a win for the Itai's. I'm not 150% positive when it comes to this match, but my instincts tell me that the Scots will win at home, which will suck, but that's just the way it is.
The other interesting thing to look at in this pool will be the different teams the Kiwi's put on the field - I don't think they really know who their best 15/22 is (I mean they are taking Thorne instead of Flavell) so they will need to tinker with their second row, centres, and back three a lot and they don't have the pleasure of a really good hit out in the pool games that the rest of the teams have.
Pool D - France, Ireland, Argentina, Georgia, Namibia
This is the pool of death. Not smart for the hosts, but the only pool with genuinly three potential Quarter Final's teams, and two potential Final contenders. The game of the cup will be the France Ireland replay in St Denis (we have tickets for it). That game at Croke Park this year was one of the finest games of rugby football I have ever seen and the Irish have been planning their revenge ever since, but this time the French are at home. I think the Irish will win the big game, and therefore the pool- they have few weeknesses if their top 15 is on the field, and probably the best backline in the game at the moment, they were unlucking against us in 03 and I think they have gotten better since then, they will be too good for a French team that is a little too hot and cold for my liking, there best chance was two times ago in my opinion- they have been strong, but not great for too long now.
The problem with this pool is that it also has the ultimate dark horse team, the Argentinians. Who have a good pack, an old dogg half back, and a match winner in Contempari (or however you spell it) they could, and its an outside with the quality of their rivals, but they could cause the boilover upset that the pool games are screaming out for. Here's the scenario, Ireland and France beat the all living shit out of each other in St Denis, and then have to play a Hungary Argentina - stranger things have happened. I am predicting that Ireland will win the pool and France will qualify for the quarters, but it will be messy, they other scenario could be the team who wins in the big Ireland/France showdown ends up losing to the Argies and therefore we see it going down to points differential - which would be hot, can you imagine BOD needing to score about 50 points (again like the 6 nations) then actually getting it done- pricless.
Quarter Finals
The first bunch of quarter finals are potentially between New Zealand and either Ireland or France- either way it will be the end of the road (probably for the hosts), although they are the only teams that could ever beat New Zealand in a QF- so expect a good game, especially if its France. The other match will be less interesting as it will be either Ireland/France vs Scotland, anyone who was Suncorp Stadium for the last QF that Scotland played (me) will know that it won't be much of a game. Although if its the Irish there will be some feeling involved. It would be better if the Italians made it through, they would at least put some spark into the match. Expect New Zealand and Ireland to get through.
The other quarter finals will also be interesting. Australia can play either England or South Africa, and Wales can also play either of these teams... South Africa is obviously the harder of the quarter finals, I would predict that Wales will play them, and South Africa should beat them. We will also beat the Poms, should be a hot match if Sheridan plays- will test Sheperdson, but we will end up being better- of course the spectre of Johnny and Rob Andrew will be hanging over our heads- will never forget that 95 Quarter final... Still fully expect us to win. If it plays out the other way, England Wales and South Africa Australia would be great games (seriously the QF's could be NZ France, Eng Wales, SA Aus- how amazing would that be?) Wales would squeek past the poms in an upset, and the Aussie's would smash the Saffie's who would let it all get to them. However, I predict the semi finalists will end up being New Zealand Ireland and South Africa Australia - from there any of the four could win it!
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