Early Predictions

So this blog never ended up getting the use I envisioned for it - but now their is a world cup on hand so I figure I will revive it to do the Worlds Cup reports on it.

Here's the pool by pool analysis of what we can expect over the next few months. Overall I am expecting the Semi Finalists to be New Zealand vs Australia, and South Africa vs Ireland - After that its really anybodys.

Pool A - England, South Africa, Samoa, USA, Tonga

This is a very straight forward pool the big game will be England vs South Africa, I think in St Denis, we tried but failed to get tickets for this one. They will be playing for the right to play the loser from Pool B - but really it doesn't matter, neither side will really want to run into either the Wallabies or Wales in Marsaille for the Quarter Finals. It won't be as big a blow out as we saw when England were in SA earlier this season, but the Saffie's should win it fairly easily. It will be a monster forward battle, A Sheridan will have the hopes of the Rose's on his back, if he could get the scrum moving backwards, well... in real terms though the Saffie second row (best in the world) and the back row (best in the world?) will be the difference. The backs will be fairly even, with Johnny keeping the game tight- but the Boks outside backs will be able to steal a couple of tries and it will be all over.

In the rest of the pool expect Samoa to be very brave in their match against England, but they wont be able to pull it off. They will come third in the pool however, with the Yanks and Tongan's bringing up the rear.

Pool B - Australia, Wales, Fiji, Canada, Japan

Another straight forward pool, the big game between Australia and Wales in Cardiff will be one of the games of the cup however. Last year was a stunning battle with the Welsh pointing the Aussies but failing to land a knock out thanks to the mighty (and I mean very mighty) Latham - this pure class in the backs will end up being the difference in this game- Larkham, Giteau, Mortlock, Tiquri, and Latho vs Jimmy Hook - he's not that good a player.

Now that Henson is out, you know the Welsh will be Jones and Hook as their three quarter line - which is good, but not great - Hook needs to be at stand off for the Welsh to win (last years game Jones went off after only a couple of minutes and Hook on debut almost stole the match). The Winter games in Australia were interesting, and close, but come full strength world cup time it will be a totally different battle. Australia will win and get the easy match against the Poms in Marsaille.

The rest of the pool will super intersting, the Fijians deserved to be Quarter Finalists in 03, if CauCau hadn't been suspended they would have played Australia in the Quarters. CauCau isn't coming to France which means the matches between Fiji, Japan and Canada will be super match's of Rugby Football- the Lotus Blossom's won't be as good as they were last time (without Cashmore), which will give the Canadians more of a shot.

Pool C - New Zealand, Scotland, Italy, Romania, Portugal

This is a rediculous pool- the IRB are bending over for New Zealand, and then gifting Scotland another undesirved Quarter Final position. If only the Argies we're in this pool we would have the best Quarter Finals you could imagine...

Anyways, the big game in the pool will Scotland Italy- which is happening in Edingburugh (I am 90% sure) The Itai's have been improving alot over the last few years, pushing Australia in the first half a year ago, and then stealing (yes stealing) their match against Wales in the 6 nations- but still a wins a win for the Itai's. I'm not 150% positive when it comes to this match, but my instincts tell me that the Scots will win at home, which will suck, but that's just the way it is.

The other interesting thing to look at in this pool will be the different teams the Kiwi's put on the field - I don't think they really know who their best 15/22 is (I mean they are taking Thorne instead of Flavell) so they will need to tinker with their second row, centres, and back three a lot and they don't have the pleasure of a really good hit out in the pool games that the rest of the teams have.

Pool D - France, Ireland, Argentina, Georgia, Namibia

This is the pool of death. Not smart for the hosts, but the only pool with genuinly three potential Quarter Final's teams, and two potential Final contenders. The game of the cup will be the France Ireland replay in St Denis (we have tickets for it). That game at Croke Park this year was one of the finest games of rugby football I have ever seen and the Irish have been planning their revenge ever since, but this time the French are at home. I think the Irish will win the big game, and therefore the pool- they have few weeknesses if their top 15 is on the field, and probably the best backline in the game at the moment, they were unlucking against us in 03 and I think they have gotten better since then, they will be too good for a French team that is a little too hot and cold for my liking, there best chance was two times ago in my opinion- they have been strong, but not great for too long now.

The problem with this pool is that it also has the ultimate dark horse team, the Argentinians. Who have a good pack, an old dogg half back, and a match winner in Contempari (or however you spell it) they could, and its an outside with the quality of their rivals, but they could cause the boilover upset that the pool games are screaming out for. Here's the scenario, Ireland and France beat the all living shit out of each other in St Denis, and then have to play a Hungary Argentina - stranger things have happened. I am predicting that Ireland will win the pool and France will qualify for the quarters, but it will be messy, they other scenario could be the team who wins in the big Ireland/France showdown ends up losing to the Argies and therefore we see it going down to points differential - which would be hot, can you imagine BOD needing to score about 50 points (again like the 6 nations) then actually getting it done- pricless.

Quarter Finals

The first bunch of quarter finals are potentially between New Zealand and either Ireland or France- either way it will be the end of the road (probably for the hosts), although they are the only teams that could ever beat New Zealand in a QF- so expect a good game, especially if its France. The other match will be less interesting as it will be either Ireland/France vs Scotland, anyone who was Suncorp Stadium for the last QF that Scotland played (me) will know that it won't be much of a game. Although if its the Irish there will be some feeling involved. It would be better if the Italians made it through, they would at least put some spark into the match. Expect New Zealand and Ireland to get through.

The other quarter finals will also be interesting. Australia can play either England or South Africa, and Wales can also play either of these teams... South Africa is obviously the harder of the quarter finals, I would predict that Wales will play them, and South Africa should beat them. We will also beat the Poms, should be a hot match if Sheridan plays- will test Sheperdson, but we will end up being better- of course the spectre of Johnny and Rob Andrew will be hanging over our heads- will never forget that 95 Quarter final... Still fully expect us to win. If it plays out the other way, England Wales and South Africa Australia would be great games (seriously the QF's could be NZ France, Eng Wales, SA Aus- how amazing would that be?) Wales would squeek past the poms in an upset, and the Aussie's would smash the Saffie's who would let it all get to them. However, I predict the semi finalists will end up being New Zealand Ireland and South Africa Australia - from there any of the four could win it!